Singapore PMX 60 Min Gold

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

WHO is On FIRST ?

Staring at things does not always clarify them.  After 3 years of abuse from malware etc, yadda, yadda, yadda, my main computer took a couple days off at the Staples Spa for its rejuvenation.  Thus in the intervening time, while "Things" did not change, but perhaps the way I looked at them did.  After sorting three years of Peak Picks, I found myself looking at a formation, suspiciously similar to several I recalled from collating my old copies of Peak Picks.

   Lets leave aside all the things conjectured to move Gold one way or the other, and consider the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow, the first since JUNE, and leave that in the forefront of our minds as we view the chart below.

 
    So click on this as you need to enlarge, and consider

WHO IS ON FIRST ? in its best metaphorical form.

    I think even in the most politest and lilly-white of social gatherings, suggesting that GDX and Gold to a lesser extent, have undergone a BLOODY SLAUGHTER
would be not at all shocking, even with ladies present.

     WHY seems nothing I would guess at because this action I speak about, is completely counter intuitive, cyclically irrational, and not reasonable from any viewpoint I can discern.   You can hear the GoldBugz gnashing their teeth about this and other real and imagined injustices, but yet we are equidistant between the Lows of 2009 and The Straits of Hell.  As much as the currents and rip tides of the larger intervenors and market forces have tried to force GDX and Gold back onto the rocks of the previous cycle lows it has NOT happened, but rather each time, demand for both comes back so strong as to blunt, block and break the assaults however many times they come.

     I'll go back to two serious, pivotal events on the Russian Front when the Nazi's had their plans blunted and broken.  Stalingrad, and Kursk.  Metaphorically I think they apply.  

     Me?  I am lining up my Same Old Usual Suspects of the PM Complex for inclusion in the next move.

    Take a subscription and see where we are, and where we could go..........., and if I have any coupons left, I will throw in a copy of Gary's new book, "GOLD VALUES and GOLD PRICES" even though that promotion is over.

Meanwhile, make sure you got some dry powder........

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

EXPECTATIONS, The Source of Much Human Misery - paraphrased from the Dali Lama


      And here, we want it all resolved on our terms, in our time.  And the market will resolve what IT wants on IT's Schedule............
    
        NO FEAR need there be on our part.   The "CORRECTION" which is really a Consolidation has an upward bias.  Do you feel like your under "House Arrest"?
SUU KYI was under house arrest for 15 years, which makes this child's play.

    WHY SO ?

Well lets see why we THINK we are disappointed, and see that, IMO, it is that things are not proceeding at the pace we wish.  Does it ever ? Sometimes, sometimes not.......so, take heart lads and lassies, those that engage in this skullduggery will pay the price for so doing, on KARMA's timetable, not ours.

   This is why - >

        This the level of Consolidation, and not, IMO, cause for concern.......

                 Get where you feel comfortable, own what you want, know that to break the truth in the PM Complex, that the forces opposing, cannot take it down far enough to break it, without breaking themselves.  Its happening, sit back and watch...........

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Clear away the Smoke & Mirrors, MOPE, Shills & MSN NewsRats and GET THIS PICTURE


            FYI a much clearer view of this is over at investmentresearchdynamics.com  with the accompanying video touching on a lot of things we know in our gut but needed some objective confirmation to feel
validated with this knowledge that you can actually see the "Smart Money" coming in from below to feed off the uninformed selling caused by this "Full-Court Press" that TPTB is doing thru MSM, because they have no other options to use to try to hold back the PM Complex market specifically Gold Stocks, perhaps because they want no competition or "distraction" from the circus of the General Stock Markets.

   For those pre-ordering their FREE e-Book version of Gary Christenson's new book, "GOLD VALUES and GOLD PRICES", with their PEAK PICKS Subscription, we anticipate the e-Vouchers will be available shortly, like next week, we think.  You can check over on Gary's site, http://deviantinvestor.com/ and also read around some info as well.

   BOTTOM LINE to go with the above chart>:  Smart Money is eating lunch at the expense of discouraged investors who take the "News" as reality.  In fact, the move in the GDX, like all other PM Complex issues, while not assured, is looking a lot more real than the shill inspired screaming about $800 gold.   Smart Money, IMO is putting its money where its Intell is, and that is, that the pressure on this entire PM Complex is to the upside, not downside.   Lots more info and a Free e-Version of "GOLD VALUE and GOLD PRICES", with a PEAK PICKS subscription, exclusively in addition to the Gold Miner Index Breadth Oscillator, GIMBO, at Denaliguide's Peak Picks subscription.

  In our minds, no mistake about it, GDX and the PM Complex are going to move positively in spite of all opposition.  We will be tracking it for subscribers when it does.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

DISTRACTION by the Smoke & Mirrors of MSM shills and News Rats.

Who were there, amongst the down stocks today with the largest $$ inflows?

Well #2 was GDX, remember them ?  Up 20% since their rally started and consolidating WITHOUT a correction.  hmmm.

Now whom else was on that list ?  Well not all Gold Miners for sure, but these were the ones that made the WSJ List for today......... In order of $$ inflow:

GG, NEM, SCCO, ABX, SLV, HL.   Wow, seems the Smart Money under the smokescreen provided by the MSN News Rats, are loading up the truck !!

        WHAT CORRECTION ?

Friday, August 22, 2014

A look at Gary Christenson's new book, "GOLD VALUES and GOLD PRICES". FREE e-Book with your Subscription !!


Gary's book gives us both a great starting point and a lot of insights, and it will be available FREE in an E-Book with a subscription to PEAK PICKS, please see our sidebar.
The current offer is limited time and limited to US Residents.  Non-US Residents can contact me directly and I make arrangements for them as well.

Upon publication the E-Book with me U$D 7.95, and the Hard Copy will be U$D 12.95 + shipping to your local address.
                                                       Inline image 1


Introduction – Why we need a model
 Part 1
 The Gold Empirical Model – a GEM

1.       Experts who don’t agree
2.       Gold prices – the last 42 years
3.       We need a model
4.       The model uses macro-economic variables
5.       The empirical formula used in the model
6.       Results from the model
7.       Gold prices projected into the future
8.       Gold prices are managed and manipulated
9.       Is $10,000 gold possible?  What would be necessary?
10.     Gold market cycles
11.     Gold ratios to the Dow, silver, and crude oil
12.     Gold – the big picture


A REVIEW:
Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 – 2021
An Empirical Model
By Gary Christenson


What is an appropriate exchange rate for gold in 2015 when priced in US dollars? What will be the appropriate exchange rate when priced in Euros in 2017?

We don’t know.

Worse, a number of highly intelligent and recognized experts often can’t even agree whether gold will be priced higher or lower in three years.

Given that major disagreement among experts, who and what should an investor believe regarding the exchange of steadily devaluing dollars, euros, pounds and yen for the purchase of gold?

My solution was to create an empirical model based on several macro-economic variables, not including the price of gold. The goal of the model was to accurately replicate the smoothed price of gold as calculated with a twice smoothed moving average of monthly closing prices since 1971.

The model performed well – specifically it had a 0.98 statistical correlation with the actual smoothed market price of gold in US dollars between 1971 and 2013. The resulting graph of calculated gold prices rose from about $30 in 1971 to about $500 in 1980 - 84, down to under $300 in 1999 - 2001, and then up to about $1,500 in 2013.

Currently the model shows that gold, selling for about $1,300, is undervalued and therefore likely to move higher in coming years.

But how much higher?
The book discusses reasonable projections based on the estimated change in the model’s inputs from macro-economic variables and then calculates reasonable or “fair” values for gold through the year 2021.

Of course the price of gold will rise above and fall below the calculated “fair” value during the next several years, but knowing the “fair” value will help people evaluate whether or not the market price of gold is over or under valued at any particular time.

Examples:

The model indicated that the market price of gold at its peak in August 2011 was 30% higher than the “fair” price.

Similarly, the market price of gold in December 2013 was 26% below its “fair” price.

This “fair” value information would have been particularly valuable to those who were considering purchases of gold in August 2011 or selling their gold in December 2013.

The model accurately replicated, on average, the smoothed price of gold for over 40 years. Furthermore the model was robust. Since 1971 the world has experienced stock market booms and busts, bond market bull and bear markets, “shock and awe,” occasional peace, the inflationary 1970s, the stock market booms of the 1990s, the devastation of 9-11 and subsequent wars, a housing crash, and a global financial crash in 2008. The model created accurate “fair” value estimates for the price of gold during all those market extremes.

The book is divided into three parts.

Part one explores the need for an empirical model, examines monthly gold prices since 1971, smoothed annual gold prices, the macro-economic variables used in the model, the actual formula that replicates smoothed gold prices, and future gold prices as projected by the model.

It also discusses gold cycles, various ratios, and shows how those cycles and ratios support the price projections indicated by the model.



Now so far this is a fun post, so let me make it more fun.........
 Here based on some of my insights from the book, is an interesting
Chart to measure some movement of Gold and its Cycles

I'd recommend the book to anyone who wants to take the time to get a better handle on what is going on under the surface, out in the larger world with regard to gold.  That's my take.
THE FREE E-BOOK IS FOR A LIMITED TIME.  RIGHT NOW I WILL EXTEND IT TO THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
 

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